In this post I discuss the prospects of consumer product delivery by drones and ask: How much are you willing to pay for the service? There is a survey at the end so you we all can see what the trend is. I'll post the results later. PS - this is not sponsored by Amazon.
I love the look of the Tesla Model S, but I’d never get one. Somehow, the opportunity to pay $100K to drive only 300 miles before spending 4 to 9 hours recharging does not appeal to me. I also love the idea of Amazon’s drone delivery initiative Prime Air. But, like the Tesla, the opportunity to pay a lot of money for drone delivery of the latest camera just doesn’t make sense.
Amazon has successfully painted a picture of a future in which its drones push merchandise from its warehouses to nearby consumers in 30 minutes. But to qualify for Prime Air, the order must be less than five pounds, which, according to Bezos, includes 86% of the packages Amazon currently sells. The order must also be small enough to fit in the cargo box that the craft will carry, and the delivery location must be within a 10-mile radius of a participating Amazon order fulfillment center.
What is less than 5 lbs.? Here’s some examples from some recent online shopping trends research:
- Consumer electronics
- Books
- Clothing
...read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2014/08/24/drone-delivery-how-much/
Take the three question survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/drone-delivery
Comments
FYI - I posted the results here: http://diydrones.com/profiles/blogs/drone-delivery-by-the-numbers
I think we are all assuming battery technology will be the same in 10 years as it is today.
Think back 10 years, none of what we do today would have been practical with NiCd batteries.
Now we have LiPo which is a huge step up in weight / performance but there are still huge opportunities to improve.
The concept of the battery being the actual airframe is probably only 10 years away and it is conceivable that energy densities and recharge times could easily double again in that time.
Fast forward 50 years and the landscape could be totally different again.
A 50 year old model airplane doesn't operate anything like the way we fly today so I think it is highly unlikely what we fly today will still be flying in 50 years time.
We live in very exciting times.
5lb? Try 5kg...:)
Should be doing a demo of this with the EPM code in 3.2 in the coming weeks. Just gotta replace the ESC's on half the motors - Hobbyking changed the firmware between June and November last year. Great.
...Rolls eyes... No one is saying that it will completely replace manned delivery. Don't be ridiculous.
Further, I've flown my APM based quad in 20 mph winds with 40 mph gusts. It was an adventure, and I don't recommend it, but who says it can't fly in rough weather?
I think that drone deliveries real value comes in places like harsh environments that are somewhat remote. For example: having a drone deliver goods from a pharmacy in a populated place like Florida would seem almost silly, and I doubt that anyone could justify the fee you would have to charge in order to make it a viable business.
But the same exact delivery, made to a farm or ranch located outside of Billings, Montana in the dead of winter, could be a service where the value would be easily justified. To really make the business work, you would alos need to be able to lease the drones.
Of course another big issue is the amount of weight the drone could carry. A hybrid multi-copter/airplane seems like the best solution to me.
Obviously at first the delivery cost will be high because it is such a unique way to deliver goods. However, I think that long term this type of technology could be a very cost effective means of delivery.
It seems to me that a simple quadcopter would be a much more efficient than paying a human to drive a truck in many situations.
The economics of drone delivery are actually quite interesting.
Unlike conventional delivery, the costs are almost 100% upfront capital - operational costs is a little bit of power for recharging (assuming sufficient reliability to not need constant repair) - assuming no crashes I wonder what lifetime flight hours a multi rotor could last for? 4-8 moving parts only the rest is solid state electronics. Replace a few LiPo every hundred or so cycles.
Contrast with delivery today which is mostly operational cost for the person doing (yearly salary > cost of vehicle) it this could actually prove more effective for Amazon without expensive extra fees (I am removing the costs for the DC from this as we assume that stays in place).
But there are ways Amazon could structure their proposed service to pass on the capital cost onto others and attract third party investment in the infrastructure for their delivery network. For example, if studies could be conducted and reports subsequently generated which are capable of demonstrating a favourable change in human behaviour due to the presence of an Amazon Prime Air docking station, then it might be possible to make the case to urban planners that the presence of an Amazon Prime Air docking station can lead to a reduction in peak traffic levels and, perhaps, even lead to a reduction in vehicle ownership rates. If such as argument held water, then developers could potentially employ it to further increase density, maximising the number of dwelling allowed in a given development application. That could unlock millions in added profitability and easily deliver a return to the developer on their investment spent including a communal air delivery system in their development.
Developing the relevant range of ISO standardised containers, along with all the relevant variations in terms of size, hot/cold storage, strength, payload specific variations, cartridge specific units, etc must be a major goal for the big players. Just look at the impact that trucking magnate Malcolm McLean's ISBU has had on international freight, docks, shipping and revolutionising global trade since he invented and patented the concept back in the 1950s. The patent on the ISO container used by the domestic postal service of tomorrow will be one of the most profitable to come out of this emerging market segment. Whoever develops and patents what eventually becomes the standard for roof based docking point (perhaps) with associated automated parcel handler which takes parcel from landing point on roof and moves it to a (secured or unsecured) space inside dwelling for receipt by relevant occupant(s) will be shopping for islands too.
Perhaps these are the sorts of things Amazon are quietly and confidently working on. They certainly have the capacity and the vision to chase these larger challenges, along with the will to do so.
I think the Google van will be delivering before a drone. Whilst the FedEx cargo jumbo stays high and moves boxes between large hubs.
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