I wrote a blog post about my high-level thoughts on the current state of the commercial drone industry and wanted to post it here in case others wanted to chime in. For those interested in past and future posts, I will try to update our blog at senseme.io/blog on a weekly basis.
Commercial drone operations is like a gigantic jigsaw puzzle whose pieces have yet to come together. As a result of the industry being so young, the concept of operating a drone commercially is largely misunderstood by even some of those who are in the space. Military drones have been in existence for over the past decade. With over a million drones expected to be bought this Christmas, it’s clear that consumer drones have already hit the mainstream market (having its own South Park episode might be the best qualifier for that). Commercial drones....well, that’s a gray area that on the large scale of things has barely begun to sort itself out.
Perhaps what is most interesting is that drones operated for commercial purposes will likely be bigger than both military and consumer drones combined (per Chris Anderson and others' predictions). At the moment, however, that’ doesn't seem to be the case by a longshot. Buddy Michini, CTO of Airware, said in a recent talk that “If anyone tells you they’re making a lot of money on commercial drones – they’re lying.” At first, I was incredulous. There is an incredible demand for what drones can do in the commercial space, so shouldn’t a lot of people be making a sh**load of money? If Buddy is right and the profits of commercial businesses aren’t currently lining up with the potential of commercial drones, let’s look at some possible reasons why that is the case.
One possible reason is that the technological ecosystem isn’t completely there yet. Most – if not all – manufacturers and service providers are still optimizing their products and services for commercial purposes. Those who are able to offer a full-fledged and mature product or solution are those who are experts in the space and have been in the game since the very beginning. Those who don’t qualify for that distinction are in the beginning stages of their businesses. The demand-side might be there, but the quantity of mature supply-side operators might not be.
Even early adopters don’t want to pay top dollar for a system that doesn’t 100% work yet. Drones in many instances are replacing operations that construction companies, farms, etc. already have in place. Even though drones clearly present an optimal solution, integrating drones into everyday operations is a big leap. Sure, people are extremely eager to get their hands on the technology. As soon as the issue of money comes up? Many scurry away. On the demand side, end-users trying out this technology (justifiably) want free demos and discounted services for being an early adopter. On the supply side, many businesses are strapped for cash and resources, making it difficult for them to meet the demand side’s needs.
Another big reason that I’ve heard from other operators and that we’ve experienced ourselves is the massive gray area that exists for insurance and compliance, as well as the gap that exists between the compliance piece and the actual operations piece. This makes end-users of the technology even more wary. Big companies who are willing to pay top dollar want to see that it’s done correctly so that they’re not liable – right now that’s not entirely possible (especially in some locations, which I’ll get to shortly), or at the very least it’s more difficult than it should be. Smaller firms might be willing to fly under the radar, but they’re much more strapped for cash and can’t hand out the $$$ that many commercial operations require to be profitable.
One of our partnered service providers who holds a 333 always voices to us that their highest priority is flying in a way that’s compliant with the FAA. Their compliant is that they don’t have access to tools that allow them to do so. Their particular issue is that they are located in Las Vegas, Class B Airspace that according to their 333 requires them to have a 2-way transponder on-board their drone. In order to clarify how he should be flying within Class B Airspace he contacted all the FAA officials and local Flight Standards District Offices (FSDO) he knew of. No one had an answer for him. Clearly something is wrong when those who should be implementing the rules can’t offer advice for how to follow them.
Another relatively new piece of the puzzle in the commercial industry is insurance. In manned aviation, insurance dominates. In unmanned aviation, this isn’t the case (yet). One reason for this is that there is no protocol in place for service providers to follow – what are best practices? As a service provider, what is expected of me to mitigate risk? And if I follow these practices, will I be rewarded in the same way as if I consistently drive my car safely?
Below is a representation of what we believe service providers often juggle for their projects – the “service provider triangle,” if you will (forgive my poor drawing skills). This is comprised of meeting client’s needs through the most up-to-date technology, while making sure you’re doing so in a fashion that’s insurable and compliant. Each one of these pieces is maturing on its own. Technology is improving rapidly. Clients are slowly beginning to understand the technology. Regulations and insurance are also making strides at their own pace (albeit, not fast enough to keep up). The biggest issue is that these pieces don’t currently fit well together. Service providers have to jam them together hoping that they fit. Without a standard protocol and best practices that a commercial service provider can easily follow, this becomes a slow, inefficient, and often ineffective process where safety & compliance falls by the wayside.
NVdrones is working together with all corners of this triangle to bridge the gap between them to make the lives of commercial operators easier. We are hoping to grow and evolve our newest product, SenseMe, to integrate with powerful pieces of software and provide operators with an easy solution to satisfy their clients while getting the best insurance and flying the most compliantly.
Like any other jigsaw puzzle, the individual pieces must come together in order for the entire picture to be realized. If you think the problem we’re solving is a viable one, visit senseme.io to learn more or e-mail me directly at kmukai@nvdrones.com.
Thanks for reading and hopefully I was able to provide some insight to those who spent the time!
Kevin
Comments
I believe you are correct David. Read my post Commercial Drone Market Forecasts Diversity and Hype here: http://diydrones.com/profiles/blogs/commercial-drone-market-forecas...
So if the thinking is that the people on the 333 list are not making a lot of money adding more competition will result in less money for everyone unless the demand turns around. The number could be so low the market awareness just doesn't exist for this type of business. But this could also support my hunch that the demand for drone service business is still much lower that the excitement about the tech at this point in time.
Here's stats on 333s as of the end of September. This trend has not changed since 333s began. Most commercial activity is at the low end - and will remain so if the barrier to entry drops with the elimination of the PPL requirement. If that happens new entrants will create downward pressure on prices. Service providers will need to differentiate their value if they want to charge a premium. This is just basic economics and is not unique to drones.
Definitely. Since there aren't data points to speak of in regards to drone-related accidents, it is both frustrating to think that laws can potentially be overbearing while on the flip side it's very difficult to make laws that actually make real-world sense. There are so many variables to account for so inevitably there will be groups who are left out in the dust. Hopefully regulations will eventually become logical, practical, and conducive to innovation/safety. Much easier said than done!
You make some interesting points Kevin and I would love to se market data as I am just speculating.
I do agree the fear of the law when drones are involved could be a huge factor. What throws me off is drones aren't dangerous from a historical statistical or even probability stand point. This will make laws very interesting as I cant quite figure out what they are or will be based on. I suspect drone laws will be more based on hysteria and one in a billion scenarios vs good stats.
But I suppose any laws even pointless ones will at least let you get on with building your business. I think it is why laws all over the world are taking so long they are just based on long shot what if scenarios and solutions to something that is not yet a real problem(statistically speaking). I always like to point out buckets kill 5 people a year in the USA lets talk regulation when drones pass that benchmark. But I get how that kind of thinking is bad for business who are trapped in purgatory.
David,
Thanks for taking the time to comment. With all due respect, I don't think that it is correct to think of oil/gas, construction, mapping, etc. as exceptions in the commercial market - these are currently the main drivers in pushing commercial drones forward. Maybe a few years ago they might've been closer to being the exception while aerial photography was the main moneymaker, but as aerial photography got easier for anyone to do there's clearly a shift for even (and perhaps especially) those who used to do only aerial photography moving into the industrial sector.
The current and future size of the commercial industry is largely debatable, but the main point I was attempting to get across is that the process of legally using drones commercially needs to be tightly integrated in order for the market to reach its full potential. Imagine if you knew you had to pay company taxes, but you weren't really sure what you were required to keep track of and/or you couldn't integrate your business operations (i.e. your bank account) with any piece of accounting software. Business owners would either waste a lot of their time doing the gruntwork, or they simply wouldn't do it, which is kind of what I've seen the past year or so.
Could it also be that the market for photographers is small so the market for photographers who fly will also be small. There will be exception of course some may be in oil/gas mapping search and rescue but even that is small when compared to something like software development. The manufactures will make lots of money but I cant se a drone services company breaking into fortune 500 any time soon. Drones in the service industry I would speculate will be a tool for existing business vs a dedicated business model of any size. I would guess it will be more in line with wedding photographers and helicopter filming business vs Software development or even IT support in the money making game.