Farmers, not police, are likely to be biggest drone market

From Wired's Danger Room:

When the flying robots that loiter in Afghanistan’s and Yemen’s airspace come home, they won’t just be headed for the local police station. They might prefer a pastoral existence of spraying crops, scanning soil patterns and other features of America’s farms.

No, Predators and Reapers aren’t going to scan large swaths of vegetation for suspected militants. And there’s tremendous interest from state and local law enforcement in drones as surveillance tools. But to Chris Mailey, a vice president with the drone promotion organization known as AUVSI, the cop shops represent short money. “Agriculture,” Mailey tells Danger Room, “is gonna be the big market.”

To Mailey, it’s a question of where the growth opportunities are. Military drone purchases are plateauing, even as the drones become increasingly central to U.S. counterterrorism. And there are limits, financial and otherwise, to the ability of police departments to purchase drones. Farming looks like a drone market with both fewer impediments and bigger incentives for early technological adoption.

“A manned crop sprayer is flying 10 feet above his crops — how accurate is it? Any crop you spray that isn’t on your farm you have to pay for, and a remote-controlled ‘copter can be very precise,” Mailey says. “Spraying, watering — there’s a whole market for precision agriculture, and when you put that cost-benefit together, farmers will buy [drones].”

AUVSI intends to publish a study in the next few weeks anticipating the scope of the domestic, non-military market for drones. But there’s already some data to support Mailey’s hypothesis. “Precision farmers” love using data tools to increase crop yields. In 2009, an Idaho farmer homebrewed his own drone, slapped a commercial digital camera on it, and began extracting data on soil patterns to help his business expand. Companies like CropCam build lightweight, modular, GPS-driven gliders to give farmers an aerial view of their fields without requiring pilot training or the expense of buying a small manned plane. Of course, this is all dependent on drone manufacturers pricing their robots inexpensively enough for farmers who also have to buy a lot of other expensive equipment to ply their trade.

Japan also provides some indication of the potential demand for drones by farmers. Yamaha introduced its RMAX unmanned helicopter for crop-spraying in 1990. By 2010, the drone ‘copter and its robotic competitors — some 2,300 of them — sprayed 30 percent of Japanese rice fields with pesticides, according to a recent Yamaha presentation. The Japanese farm hectares sprayed by manned helicopters dropped from 1,328 in 1995 to 57 in 2011, as unmanned helicopter spray rose to 1,000 hectares that year.

Closer to home, last year the Electronic Frontier Foundation, using the Freedom of Information Act, obtained data from the Federal Aviation Administration detailing who’s been cleared to operate drones in U.S. airspace. Local, state and federal police and homeland-security agencies had received 17 certificates of authorization for flying drones. Universities received 21 of them. “All those universities are focused on agriculture,” Mailey says.

Of course, your local police, if they can, are very likely to buy drones, ushering in a new era of tech-enabled aerial privacy erosions. Several already have — although a full list is unavailable — like the Miami-Dade Police Department, whose use of Honeywell’s T-Hawk spy drone I profiled in the December 2011 Playboy. (Link is SFW.) Mailey’s argument is that there’s a hard limit of 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the U.S., many of which may not be able to afford the expense of what could be argued is an optional piece of hardware that can run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars and requires cumbersome FAA licenses. (Which, in fairness, farmers will need as well.) Put a different way, Mailey and AUVSI forecast a steeper growth in the drone market for farms than it does in the drone market for law enforcement — but it sees both on the rise.

The biggest reversal? While the U.S. market for drones is “almost 100 percent military,” Mailey puts it, the drone industry doesn’t think it can rely on the Defense Department much longer. Last year, the Pentagon indicated in a congressional report that it was going to level off most of its drone purchases through 2017; it currently spends about $6.5 billion annually on unmanned robotic systems. Maintenance and replacement-level purchases, rather than inventory expansions, is likely to characterize drone purchases — at least until the Navy’s carrier-based drone joins the fleet at the end of the decade.

“There’s still a lot of money [in military drones], but it’s more predictable,” Mailey says. “This wild wild west we’ve had is consolidating.” Sounds like time to farm.

Views: 3135


Developer
Comment by Jason Short on February 7, 2013 at 12:20am

I'm building a Bixler/APM drone now for my Step-dad's farm in Tenn. He asked me out of no where and said he needed a drone to fly around the property. I guess he's getting tired of patrolling it on an ATV, plus you simply can't see anything in tall grass or crops from that vantage point. Once his neighbors check it out, I'm sure I'll start to get orders...

Jason

Comment by Joshua Johnson on February 7, 2013 at 12:21am

I agree 100% I am always daydreaming of all the different applications robotics can provide farmers especially here in Minnesota.  With all the aging farmers of the baby boomer generation robotics makes perfect sense.

Comment by James masterman on February 7, 2013 at 12:44am

Interesting viewpoint. I think the community needs to spend some time on this kind of analysis - figuring out what the "killer app" (no pun intended) will be for civilan drones.

Aerial mapping is certainly a significant commercial use now, but I think it will always be a bit of a niche market. Crop spraying and other farm based activities seems a good use, but only the bigger farms will be able to afford, or even want, UAV's capable of crop spraying. There was even a crop spraying drone on last year's sci fi hit movie "Loopers" (granted that was set in 2044).

Other farm based uses like mustering on large properties and stock and crop monitoring will surely become more common.

They will have to be significantly tougher than our dones to survive a farm based life, though!

 

 

 

Comment by Schwabenkart on February 7, 2013 at 2:10am

I commit. And there are many other use cases for the civil - non government - non police - usage of UAV.


Developer
Comment by Randy on February 7, 2013 at 2:25am

In Japan as well there's quite a bit of interest from farmers in replacing the very expensive Yamaha R-max with a cheaper multicopter.  I hear the yamaha is $100k+ and takes 4 people to operate (a spotter, a flyer, two people to carry it?).

I hope there will be an easy transition here because the yamaha has already broken down most of the psychological and legal barriers.

Comment by Harry on February 7, 2013 at 6:58am

Precision agriculture was one of the first civilian applications of GPS.  The GPS World magazine even had an issue discussing it, with a John Deere on the cover and a farmer following a GPS guided course.  That was back when a Rx cost mucho and was the size of a VCR.

Comment by Dave Schilling on February 7, 2013 at 7:32am

I also think they would be great for Ranchers, been thinking of uses for drones for years and the possibilities are endless. Its just making them affordable to particular markets.

 

Comment by Flying Monkey on February 7, 2013 at 10:08am

This is an awesome use for UAVs!  I think I need to get more involved with local farmers on this topic!

 

I'm still really confused every time someone equates police UAVs with privacy concerns. I have yet to see a squad car drive by taking pictures of my home, or a police helicopter hovering over my home taking pictures... They really don't care to "surveil" us, lol.  Besides, for decades now if the government wants to they can use satellite pictures to read the time off your wristwatch while sitting in your backyard...  So...

Comment by Gary McCray on February 7, 2013 at 12:01pm

This was an excellent article on at least one important and beneficial aspect of sUAS vehicles, rice fields are generally a pain to work with because of their necessity for flooding and it makes perfect sense that unmanned aerial crop maintenance would be a preferred method.

On less problematic crops, robotically driven tractors are already in widespread use and less fussy aerial vehicles like multicopters could certainly be put to good use as well.

Practical drone (sUAS) and robot use is going to grow by leaps and bounds over the next several years for the simple reason that the cheap microcomputers and sensors now exist and the mechanical means for them to operate are also rapidly ramping up in production (thus down in cost).

No doubt a lot of unnecessary emotion and hysteria will retard growth in some areas (our military use of drones as hunter-killers has produced a ton of negative press) but eventually they are bound to succeed, simply as a competitive economic necessity if for no other reason.

Comment by Brian Gelder on February 7, 2013 at 12:32pm

This is the area of greatest interest to me. There are a lot of things that could be done to improve productivity/sustainability/profitability that aren't because they are currently too expensive to do without UAVs. However, if you could spray your field with a UAV or take crop images every day with a UAV or use a UAV to actually hunt/kill bugs or weeds, things would definitely change quickly as the cost of these actions are going to be dramatically lower than current methods. The biggest problem is generally what do we do with all the data.

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