Should We Let the Drone Hype Run Its Course?

3689613540?profile=originalThe mere mention of “Autonomous Vehicles” conjures up visions of machines able to carry out complex tasks that have taken us a millennium to evolve or tasks we have yet to take on ourselves.  With national discussion (in this case, Unmanned Aerial Systems – UAS) focused on UAS policies, applications, and capabilities leading us to dream about the future of UAS systems, take a moment to consider how UAS development charts against the Gartner Hype Cycle because my concern is that FAA policies developed during the early periods of innovation (and hype!)  could stifle long term productivity of the industry.
Drones are one of those areas that stimulate the imagination, like rocket ships and X-Ray Specs in the 1950s and with good reason.   The first is the open source environment of many of the technical components of UAS systems that enable developers and innovators to get under the hood and customize the flight characteristics and autonomous function of the flight control systems.  These pioneers, standing on the shoulders of earlier pioneers, inspiring the next generation of pioneers, ensure a constant stream of advanced concepts hovering across the UAS landscape, in discussion groups, and in public dialogue, creating excitement and worry.  While some concepts have merit (obstacle avoidance, location reporting, product delivery), many are unsound (persistent surveillance) without a technical breakthrough or fail the common-sense test (beer delivery!) as we already have laws that apply to a specific use.

The second is that you can turn practically anything into a drone with the availability of parts and the sharing of ideas.  You can literally make a brick “fly” like a robot.  In addition to the aerial kind, I’ve seen drone boats, cars, kites, jellyfish…even a robot fish that helps direct schools of fish, all bringing their own use-case scenarios that run the spectrum from brilliant to nefarious applications.

To make any of the drone hype a reality, you have to match a great design with all of the Size, Weight and Power (SWaP) limitations.  Most often these requirements provide enough challenges to slow the rapid expansion and application of drone technologies without the need for all-encompassing policy or regulation.  The realization of these requirements tip us over the crest of the Hype Cycle Expectation Peak and downward into the Trough of Disillusionment as businesses manage expectations and match market demands with reliable components and the right amount of progress.

The reality is that people will always hype what drones can do, what we want them to do, how they will impact our lives and most of these will never take to the air because the laws of physics AND the law of Supply and Demand get the final vote.  I am one of these people who dreams of UASs that can find lost hikers, that can carry a WiFi signal or a vaccine and I’ve had the ground come up and smite my systems enough times that I now carefully weigh the benefits before I hit the throttle.

This is where FAA policies, rules, and governing regulations need to be applied; after the flood of ideas and big dreams have been grounded in reality.  Setting policies to encapsulate all the bad ideas currently out for discussion will ultimately crush industry and innovation of the good ideas.   Afterall, television is still a great idea despite 13 seasons of Big Brother.

I know we WANT the FAA to get its policies in order and allow the commercial development to proceed as rapidly as we come up with a great new use-case, but we need to let the technology follow its course a little longer to where we can see the productivity-potential (as we stand there picking up the pieces of our systems that couldn’t live up to our grand ideas) and focus policies where they allow the right kinds of innovation and encompass the safety/rights of the general public.

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Comments

  • First of all, most of these posts are ignored by the majority of people, just tally the comments or the like count. In a single month there must be 50 stories about the FAA. Its bloody boring! I wouldnt buy a magazine that printed the same story 50 times in a month, and if the news gave me the price of milk 50 times from 50 different shops, i would never watch them again. I know its hard to believe but go back a few pages worth and you will see, very quickly my counts are validated.

    Your 9/11 reference is invalid, airports are important, but we dont travel by plane everyday. Our society is actually more affected by other aspects and ideas that our countries have not copied from America, like guns, free healthcare, welfare and so on. In fact in our own hobby world, the hardware comes from China, and most of the APM software is from Australians.

    We live in a connected world, there should be some balance in such concentrated focus on a single countries problems even if America is a large minority.

    Back to main my point, its blooody boring!

  • Developer

    Considering the ramifications FFA actions can have on our R/C and UAV hobby in general, I think it is only natural that it get's a lot of attention.

    And don't think that just because you and me aren't located in the US, that it will not affect us. Just look at what happened with international airport and shipping port security regulations after 911.

  • Here we go again, with the FAA stories, American Narcissim, must be the 10th in just a few days. Mods plz keep them to a minimum.

  • John - Sounds like you just weren't earning enough. Or you were in the wrong role. Or both. Perhaps it's just your taste in hobbies :)

    My experience has been the polar opposite... and, hoping to capitalise on the fact that I am a total tragic when it comes to this stuff, I am doggedly toiling to develop a role for myself in this rapidly evolving market in an optimistic effort to restore my former sense of job satisfaction. I am not looking for a role as an operator though.
  • Lucky for me this is just one of my hobbies/passions!  I say GO DO IT...and then replace this hobby with another.  

  • Developer

    What Gary says is very true. I live in Norway and I have had multiple opportunities to work professionally with UAV inspection relates task in the oil industry if I wanted. But so far I have declined since I know from previous experience that turning your hobbies into a job, takes the fun out if it.

  • Moderator

    The rest of the world is on a different point of the Gartner hype its moved through to actually working. Take this job advert for a company looking for multirotor pilots to do North Sea oil rig inspections. This sort of thing is beginning to happen every day now. The tools to get work done are also maturing, Pix4D just released the latest version of their photogrammetry software and its jolly impressive. Flying the platforms is super simple now. The revolution is over, its time to start working. The FAA have said its not likely to roll out widespread commercial use until 2021. 

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