Good article at The Atlantic's Quartz site comparing DJI with 3DR. Sample quote:
The UAV industry is a fairly new one, and right now its main focus is on consumer products. That’s partially because it is growing from a consumer base: What has made them possible is the smartphone revolution, which drove down the price on the tiny electronic components needed to turn low-power remote control aircraft into flying robots that navigate, communicate, and sense. While defense contractors were making expensive and powerful drones for the US military, hobbyists were basically bolting iPhones onto remote-controlled helicopters.
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Lol @ Joshua... that's what my R/C club was like... mostly old coots taking their balsa gliders into the field for some fun... while the younger crowd got all hyped up about F3B competitions with the latest carbon/kevlar airframe! ;)
As for me, I don't see the future of drones as being in remote sensing (including aerial photography/video), although this will be an important application area... I see more of a future in entertainment and games... and that's why I have research students working on some of these problems now... to enable future generations of quads to not only fly intelligently, but to play intelligently as well.
Tim, one can imagine, in thirty years there won't be any quadcopters at all.
Our remote sensing will done by reading light reflections off the air molecules above the target with a sensor growing out of our heads, or some such "magic".
Taco delivery will be made obsolete by atomic rendering.
Search and rescue will be accomplished with telepathy(call it quantum if you must). Lassie didn't need a Flir camera or any altitude to take care of business.
Warfare has an evolutionary hard limit, so no need for aerial ordinance or espionage.
Maybe all of us, as old coots, will take our antiques down to the park and putter around in the sky remembering the early days : )
Everyone seems to want to liken their product to those of Apple's, at some point in the latter's evolution. It's all about getting others to perceive that "this is the next big thing". Don't get me wrong... I'm quite confident of the rise and rise of R/C quads/hexes/etc. in the hobbyist space and within the commercial space... and companies like 3DR are getting in on the ground floor, helping to define the industry.
I agree with Dennis here on the comparison though... my quad is very much like the first Microbee 16 my father aquired. He built it from components ... and incorporated his own design changes into it. I helped with the programming (our first program... a single screen version of Donkey Kong, which had just come out... yes, this was a LONG time ago). This was very much a DIY computer, based off someoneelse's spec and kit of components. For me, the next stage was a ZX81... complete in a box... plug it in, turn it on and go (well, okay, you had to program it every time to use it, as it had no physical storage capacity)... that would be equivalent to the RTF products now (DJI, etc.).
So look at computer hardware today... now its small, inexpensive and ubiquitous... where will quads be in 30 years... probably even smaller, far cheaper and even more ubiquitous than smart phones are today!
Dennis, you make a good point, but I would kindly argue a little bit.
Time scales are different now, and any market analysis of new tech must be given a tremendous lead. It's like trying to intercept an asteroid. The stages of maturation in the PC market that took ten or fifteen years in the last century, will now be compressed into years, months, and days.
Big plodding dinosaurs, like the military industrial contractors and the FAA, are moving in hypo-time; while all of us buzz around- collaborating, printing, crashing, and iterating.
And like your last sentence says, having fun! This kind of force can't be stifled.
There are too many commercial uses for this technology, and too many people using it outside the US for there to be serious restrictions placed on it. The Powers That Be in the US will want to participate. To not be left behind.
This wave might not be as large as the PC revolution. In reality, it is but a part of it. I would only take issue with the comparison date of Apple and 1984. By the time of the Mac intro, years had gone by since the introduction of the 8 bit hobby computers, and then the first major players, Apple, Tandy and Commodore, in the retail markets of the late 70's. By 84, many millions had been made, companies built and others failed.
This is more like the late 70's, where the average person is beginning to be aware of the technology, and commercial uses are just barely beginning to be found.
We have a long way to go. And I intend on having fun doing it.
This doesn't seem realistic. The trend for UAVs is clear, and isn't the current status for commercial UAV use in the Unites States already pretty much already "I don't think so"? My prediction: They will allow commercial use, but with restrictions that DIYers won't be particularly happy about.
Incredibly cheap computer systems with great I/O, Powerful and afffordable power system and motors, sensors unavailable to consumers until very recently (many of them pioneered by the game industry), advanced vision systems, cheap compilers, home computer-driven fabrication for parts -- we are definitely at hte beginning of a very interesting world -- ain't it fun??
I enjoyed your long post Thomas and I promise not to spam you unless you consider this spam. :-)
I agree with what you said and have known for some time that this hobby I enjoy will get outlawed someday. But I may continue until the laws are enforced because we have too many laws that aren't enforced so that one will just be one more. :-) I hardly ever even draw much attention these days but of course I know that one bad accident could change all that in a split second. :-(
I`m fairly new to the scene Chris,and from what I`m seeing it is the start of something exciting that the GP can get into and enjoy.
When I look at a multirotor etc I see a lot of technology that has been around for a long time,though improved and modified somewhat.
I`m waiting for the real technological changes eg power systems,and systems to power a vehicle.
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