Over the past few years, the press has emphasized how much commercial drones will be used to improve farming. The assumption is that drones provide more accurate data for use in variable rate technology (VRT) so farmers who use drones will experience increased yields.  But truth be told very little has been written about the measurable benefits and it’s yet to be proven just how effective UAS will be in helping farmers increase yields. With that in mind, we just released The Truth about Drones in Precision Agriculture, a free research study that reviews those benefits and challenges.

The report is the first in series of studies sponsored by BZ Media that looks objectively at each major market for drones and drone technology. In this paper, we look at how drones have been used as remote sensing devices in agriculture thus far, review competitive and traditional approaches using incumbent technology, discuss the opportunities and challenges posed by the technology itself, outline the lessons learned, and discuss what’s next for drones in agriculture. Here is an excerpt:

“For the most part, recent technology advancements in small UAS equipped with good sensors support the farmer’s and/or researcher’s ability to locate a precise position in a field, observe it, and create maps of as many variables as can be measured — but only on a small scale. That’s because under current FAA rules, all observation and measurement would have to be done by a drone that is within visual line of site (VLOS) of the operator. The problem is that fields and farms are big– bigger than VLOS.  According to this report, there are approximately 2.1 million farms in America.  The average size is 434 acres. Small family farms, averaging 231 acres, make up 88 percent of farms.  That’s 1.85 million farms that could benefit immediately from VLOS operations.  But large family farms (averaging 1,421 acres) and very large family farms (averaging 2,086 acres) make up 36 percent of the total farm acres in the U.S., so most of that would require beyond VLOS operations.

Sure, operators could conduct many operations in a day by moving section to section to section and stitching together larger maps for large or very large acre farms, but this is costly – both in terms of manpower and time. Even if it was cheaper, the market potential for drones in precision agriculture still needs more vetting. Despite the ROI studies like this one by the American Farm Bureau Federation and Measure, it’s not yet clear how a sUAS can deliver more usable data to a farmer or provide a cost benefit over the existing manned aircraft or the satellite image solutions available to them today.”

The paper goes on to analyze six use cases for drones in agriculture in great detail - including using drones for crop vigor assessment and the use of prescription maps. You can find out more about the report and download for free it here.

If you have questions about what's in the report or would like to comment on it after reading it please post below or write me colin@droneanalyst.com.

Image credit: Colby AgTech

This post will also appear in sUAS News ‘The Market’ and is a follow up to a previous DIY Drones post: New Research on Drone Buying Experience.

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We just released “Drones in the Channel: 2016 Market Report,” a research study examining drone sales and distribution channels in North America. It’s the first in-depth study of drone sales channels and reveals mixed distribution tactics as well as pinpoints market share of major UAV brands.

The report is a result of a three-month project sponsored by BZ Media.  Incorporating qualitative research and including interviews with major drone manufacturers and drone distributors, the study also contains the results of a quantitative precision survey. It offers fresh insights on the major brands and the growing role that distribution and reseller businesses play in the sale of consumer and commercial drones. You can read the press release here.

Among the many insights we got from the research, these two are worth highlighting:

1. Most drones costing more than $2,000 are purchased for professional use.
2. DJI’s overall market share in North America is about 50 percent—not 70 percent as popularly described.

Read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2016/04/25/insights-from-new-market-research-on-drones-sales/

We just launched a new research survey exploring your drone-buying experiences, where you bought, what seller services matter, and where you intend to buy drones and/or small unmanned aerial systems. As a short 13-question survey, it’s designed for those who have bought or will buy a drone for either hobby, commercial, or public use.

The study is designed to answer the following key questions and more:

• What’s the best place to purchase a drone (for example online or in a store)?
• What matters most about your purchase: is it price, availability of accessories, or is service?
• What was the intended use? Was is for hobby or racing or photography, or was it for work?
• What are the most popular drone brands by price point?

This research study is being underwritten by BZ Media, the organizer of InterDrone and Drone Dealer Expo, and preliminary results will be presented at the Drone Dealer Expo in Orlando, April 11-13, 2016.

You can take the brief survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/NMVT9F5

You can read more details about the study here: http://droneanalyst.com/2016/02/09/new-survey-whats-your-drone-purchase-experience-like/

This post also appears in sUAS News ‘The Market’

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“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – attributed to Yogi Berra

I was recently asked in an interview to discuss four or five trends that I see as major drivers in the commercial drone industry today and what manufacturers and service providers might focus on in the future. That sounds simple enough for an industry analyst, but sometimes predictions are as hard as trying to determine where that quote came from. It’s not an exacting science, but it’s certainly better than palm reading.

That said, here are six trends I think will drive key opportunities and challenges for drone manufacturers, service providers, and investors for 2016 and beyond. They are:

1. Fidelity
2. Sensors
3. Mobility
4. China Incorporated
5. Virtual and Augmented Reality
6. Competition

Fidelity

One of the major trends we are seeing in the commercial drone industry is the desire for more fidelity – that is, better image and video resolution...

Continue reading here: http://droneanalyst.com/2016/01/29/six-trends-driving-the-commercial-drone-market-in-2016-and-beyond/

By Jonathan Rupprecht, Esq. for Drone Analyst

This past year, as I attended many drone conferences, I was struck by how eager public safety officials and first responders are to learn how they can incorporate drones into their operations.  Their curiosity is not without good reason.  Small drones with video and infrared cameras are excellent tools for things like situational awareness of critical incidents, search and rescue operations, crime scene processing, and fire damage assessments.

If you are part of one of these outfits and are considering an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) for your operation, then you should know the FAA treats Public Aircraft Operations differently than civilian aircraft operations.  At first glance, the FAA’s requirements for Public Aircraft Operations seem overwhelming, but take heart.  Some of the Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs) do not apply to you, and hopefully this post will clarify and ease what’s required of you.

At the outset I need to say I highly recommend speaking with someone who is knowledgeable about the FAA’s FAR’s, especially if you are seeking to fly your aircraft as a public aircraft operation. The FAA will make sure you follow the very strict requirements to be classified as a public aircraft. If you do not meet the requirements, you will be considered a civil aircraft and could be in violation of multiple regulations.

At the outset, you should know about these three benefits of public aircraft operations status:

Continue reading here: http://droneanalyst.com/2016/01/11/3-things-public-safety-officials-should-know-about-drones/

This post also appears in sUAS News ‘The Market’

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What a difference a year makes.

Last year at this time, I reflected back on the news and trends of the commercial drone markets of 2014 and wrote about the mixed state of affairs in the U.S.  Back then, drones got considerable media hype and you would have thought that drones could do anything from guide your car in the wilderness, to save the planet from starvation.  In reality, we were just beginning to see the very first FAA grants of regulatory exemptions for commercial activity—which was nothing more than filming on closed sets.

Contrast that with this year, one in which we’ve seen more than 2,500 Section 333 grants for all kinds of commercial activity and the press’s narrative that ‘drones are cool’ turned to ‘drones are a headache’. Even so, there’s more going on than just public consternation.

In this post, I’ll review what I think were the six most significant commercial market trends for drones in 2015 set in the context of movies and myths.  Enjoy.

1. Casino Royale: Venture Capital

In the 2006 movie Casino Royale, James Bond attempts to bankrupt a terrorist financier by beating him in a high-stakes poker game. The plot twists and the tournament culminates in a $115-million winning hand for Bond—who discovers later the woman he fell in love with has stolen the winnings.

Just how high is the game of drone investment? Continue reading here:  http://droneanalyst.com/2015/12/08/commercial-drone-markets-2015-year-in-review/

This post is a follow up to a previous post: Is ADS-B Right for Small Drones and also appears in sUAS News ‘The Market’

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What the heck is ADS-B and why should I care?

I asked myself that question a year-and-a-half ago, because I kept seeing the term ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast) come up in discussions and articles on unmanned aircraft traffic management (UTM). 

You may have seen it yourself in the UTM solutions proposed by Amazon, Google, PrecisionHawk, and NASA, with NASA trying to coordinate it all.  They all know that someday unmanned vehicles will share airspace at low altitudes with general aviation equipment such as airplanes, helicopters, and gliders. Agreeing on a safe and efficient system that will manage both manned and unmanned traffic is a vital concern for the FAA, NASA, private companies, and academic users.

NASA’s UTM Fact Sheet summarizes the concern that there is currently no infrastructure system in place for UAS flight:

“A UAS traffic management (UTM) system for low-altitude airspace is needed, much like today's surface vehicles that operate within a system consisting of roads, lanes, stop signs, rules, and lights, regardless of whether the vehicle is automated or driven by a human… Civilian use of UAS has many growing applications: product delivery, surveillance security, agriculture, film industry, mapping and planning, real estate, and search and rescue.”

This was never envisioned when the FAA conceived the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) for manned aviation, which is due for implementation across the U.S. in stages between 2012 and 2025 and proposes to transform America’s ground-based air traffic control system to a satellite-based one. So, here we are looking for an infrastructure solution to low-altitude flight management, and the mistake may be that we are trying to solve it with an “all-altitude” flight management solution.

Regardless of the origin, all of these system proposals all have one thing in common - ADS-B.   This technology is the key element for the system ‘tracking’ and reporting a drone’s position to other aircraft.

But is it right for all small UAS operating in Class G airspace?

With that question in mind, we conducted an in-depth research study and have just released it: ADS-B and Its Use for Small Drone Traffic Management.

The study is both qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative portion includes information gleaned from academic sources as well business sources -- including interviews with aircraft avionic vendors working on ADS-B solutions for all size UAS. Data collected for the quantitative portion study comes from a survey we conducted over the web in August 2015.

The study gives six key insights and seven recommendations. For example...

Read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2015/11/01/uncertain-case-for-ads-b-in-small-drone-traffic-management/

This post also appears in sUAS News

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These days it seems just about anyone can get an FAA Section 333 Exemption that allows them to legally use small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) for commercial purposes in the U.S.  As of October 20, 2015, almost 71% of all Section 333 grants have gone to firms claiming that their primary operation/mission is Film/Photo/Video (and most claim multiple uses).  This includes companies that are using drones for movies, as well as for art and real estate, among other things. Inspection and Monitoring has seen the second highest issuance rate, at 31%, while Mapping and Surveying for land and commercial construction, rounds out the top three at 20%.

Looking further into the data, AUVSI reports that at least 84% -- and perhaps as many as 94.5%-- of all approved companies are small businesses. While we don’t agree with their astronomical forecast (see our write-up here), we concur with this analysis.

But here’s the catch.  With the bar so low for starting a commercial drone service, what’s the guarantee these businesses will succeed? According to Bloomberg, eight out of 10 entrepreneurs who start businesses fail within the first 18 months. A whopping 80% crash and burn. So given the risk, it makes sense to assess which markets and use cases provide the best chance of success, the skills you’ll need, and the value-add services you should be offering those markets.

Here are five services we think you should consider offering as part of your commercial drone business..

Read more here:  http://droneanalyst.com/2015/10/26/five-skills-you-need-to-succeed-in-the-commercial-drone-market/

I've got a brief 10-question survey which seeks to get your opinions about ADS-B solutions for small drones.

The technology for tracking small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) has advanced rapidly in the past few years.  New and disparate solutions all claim great promise.  Many of these solutions are based on automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS–B), a cooperative surveillance technology in which an aircraft determines its position via satellite navigation and periodically broadcasts it, enabling it to be tracked by ground control station. ADS-B signals can also be received by other aircraft to provide situational awareness and allow self-separation.

But is it the right solution for small UAS (under 55 lbs.) operating in low-altitude class G airspace?

When its done I'll post the results back here in a new post.  Thanks much! - Colin

Take survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/DBRH89H

By Jonathan Rupprecht, Esq. writing for Drone Analyst

In response to the rapidly growing drone industry, there are now many attorneys and law firms that are seeing an opportunity to make money and are offering drone legal services as a part of their regular practice areas.  Although many of these attorneys and/or firms may have experience in their regular and specific legal fields, they most likely are just trying to get into this new legal field area (“get their feet wet”) by offering a new drone practice group with drone legal services. How can you find an experienced drone attorney that will best serve your drone legal needs as opposed to an attorney who is just trying to dabble in the drone area? Here are five tips to find an attorney to best help with your needs:

1. Find out how many 333 petitions the attorney has filed.

Many attorneys are starting to come into this new legal field. Some of those attorneys have no aviation law knowledge or section 333 experience. If they don’t have any experience, this could cause some problems.  One example is where an inexperienced attorney might charge you more for a petition so they can learn how to do it or to get experience. Another example is that an inexperienced attorney might not be able to rapidly file your 333 petition which means your wait is longer until you can commercially operate.

Read more here:  http://droneanalyst.com/2015/08/11/5-tips-on-finding-a-good-drone-attorney/

I just released a new research report.  It details the state of the commercial drone industry in the U.S. as of the end of June 2015.  It looks at recent innovations, business applications, key ecosystem companies, and market forecasts. It analyzes the business impact and market opportunities that proposed Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) rules have on unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) manufacturers, distributors, service providers, and investors.  The report is a great primer for those who want to take advantage of the coming boom in this potentially lucrative industry.  It provides fresh information for industry veterans, entrepreneurs and investors, career changers/advancers, and corporate personnel in all industries. The full text of the report contains the most salient industry statistics illustrated by 12 figures and four tables.

Read more about the report here: http://droneanalyst.com/2015/07/06/new-commercial-drones-report-current-state-of-the-u-s-industry/

This article provides good data on adoption trends for precision agriculture. It includes data on UAVs and confirms what I've been reporting all along about this market. 

http://www.croplife.com/equipment/precision-ag/2015-precision-agriculture-dealer-survey-top-four-trends-to-watch/

This post analyzes the latest commercial drone forecasts and debunks some prevalent myths and hype. 

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Have you noticed the growing number of market forecasts for the commercial drones industry?  I have.  Not a week goes by that a new one doesn’t hit my radar.  I’m currently tracking about 15.  Each in one way or another delivers growth projections for the drone or unmanned aerial system (UAS) sector that are nothing short of phenomenal.  But are they, really?

In this post, I’m going to share three secrets to help you understand forecasts better, unpack the hype and diversity of market reports, and hopefully leave you skilled enough to ‘cry foul’ when you see a new report that is, well, questionable. At the end, I’ll give you my personal take on the most popular forecast reports.

THREE SECRETS

Read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2015/06/04/diversity-and-hype-in-commercial-drone-market-forecasts/

This post observes the latest trend in the camera drone market. It also appears in sUAS News 'The Market'.

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By Steve Maller for Drone Analyst

My brief but productive visit last month to the 2015 National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) in Las Vegas showed me just how fast the camera drone market is heating up. More than 97,000 people in media and entertainment attended this year, and the show featured for the first time an Aerial Robotics and Drone Pavilion with a fully enclosed “flying cage” for demonstrations. It was so well attended that one writer called the NAB 2015 “The Year of the Drone.”

Much has already been written about how drones impacted the show, and you can find good articles here and here.  I was particularly impressed with FreeFly System’s ALTA high-end drone because it represents what I consider to be a prime example of just how advanced unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) technology have become. You can find my post on that here.

As a post-show wrap-up I offer five observations about the state of the aerial film / photo / video drones market:

Read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2015/04/21/five-observations-about-the-camera-drone-market-from-nab-2015/

This post highlights the business impact and market opportunities the proposed rules brings to drone manufacturers, distributors, service providers, and investors. It also appears in sUAS News 'The Market'.

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On February 15, 2015, the commercial drone industry breathed a collective sigh of relief. The Federal Aviation Administration’s proposed new rules for small unmanned aircraft systems seemed, at first blush, somewhat practical.  The FAA regulations will eventually allow commercial operations of drones that weigh under 55 pounds in U.S. airspace, without requiring operators to acquire a pilot’s license. You can read the full 195 pages of proposed rules here(hereafter sUAS notice of proposed rulemaking, or NPRM) and some analysis about them here, here, and here.

In this post, I’ll focus on what I think are the immediate economic winners and losers.  My analysis is concentrated on the business impact and market opportunities that the proposed rules have for drones manufacturers, distributors, service providers, and investors.

What do investors need to know?

According to CB Insights data, 2014 investments in the budding drone industry topped $108M across 29 deals. Year-over-year funding increased 104% as venture firms jumped into the drone space with sizable bets. Still, over the past couple of years, I’ve heard VCs and potential investors discussing the FAA bottleneck and questioning whether this was the right time to invest.  Regulatory uncertainty has kept many on the sidelines. But this new clarity should help investors, including those interested in investing in operational and data / information services.

Read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2015/02/16/faa-drone-rules-market-winners-and-losers/

This post also appears in The Market | sUAS News

New Judging by the headlines, 2014 turned out to be the year for drones. I referenced in Tweets a total of 503 articles with the word ‘drones’ in the headline last year.  A Google search brings up about 61.4 million results referring to ‘drones.’  Granted, that search includes references to military and hobby drones, but it still delivers higher results than other years.  

If the first theme of 2014 was the rise in popularity of drones, the second theme was how hamstrung the commercial markets are in the U.S. because of a lack of regulations. But there’s more going on than the buzz and frustration with FAA progress; in this post, I’ll review what I think were the five most significant commercial market trends for drones in 2014.

Read more: http://droneanalyst.com/2014/12/30/commercial-drone-markets-2014-year-review/

What if you could talk to a drone?  No, seriously.  You can already talk to a locomotive, so why not talk to a drone?

For those of you following the technology, you already know that unmanned aircraft systems (a.k.a. drones) are finding their way into Internet of Things (IoT) implementations. IoT applications are typically composed of:

• A sensor “at rest,” e.g., on a highway or a bridge or a thermostat that gathers input (like weather conditions or seismic activity)
• A connection (via the Internet) between the sensor and a back-end data collection infrastructure
• A back-end data collection infrastructure that’s commonly based in the cloud

So why do I claim that drones the future of IoT? For one, drone technology is evolving very rapidly. Drones are already beginning to efficiently replace the connected sensors at rest with one device that is:

1. deployable to different locations
2. capable of carrying flexible payloads
3. re-programmable in mission
4. able to measure just about anything, anywhere

To illustrate the trend and these capabilities, I’ll highlight the developments of several companies. But first – so that we are all on the same page - let’s look at what I mean when I talk about drones.

Read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2014/12/01/drones-are-the-future-of-iot/

This post also appears in sUAS News ‘The Market‘.

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I think it’s futuristic – the drone that is.  The camera, on the other hand, is another story.

The drone

For a guy like me who not only follows the commercial market for drones but is also an avid photography and multirotor enthusiast, the new DJI Inspire 1 is, well, inspiring. It’s chock full of features I wish I had four years ago when I first started mounting GoPro cameras on quadcopter kits -- things like ease of use, a simple interface, controller ergonomics, telemetry, a 3D-axis gimbal, integrated HD video downlink, optical flow for indoor flying (how cool is that!?).

Much has already been written on the Inspire 1 T600 (like here and here) so I won’t repeat it.  The question for this post is: Did DJI hit the mark for the target market?  For that answer, we need to go beyond the drone itself and look at how professional photographers and videographers use drones and cameras.

Read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2014/11/16/dji-new-drone-hit-target-market/

GIS: The Biggest Little Drone Market in the World

Last week I had the pleasure of participating in a two-day symposium on unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) hosted by the Northern California American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS).  The event was held in Reno, Nevada, (otherwise known as “The Biggest Little City in the World”), and its purpose was to assemble UAS experts and enthusiasts to share information, showcase new technologies, and demonstrate systems in action – systems that support geographic information systems (GIS).  Presentations covered a wide range of topics, including everything from vehicles, to software, to data collection, to workflow, cameras, and sensors. You can find my presentation here.

By all measures, this event was a success. With more than 500 attendees, the symposium included presentations on a wide range of topics including vehicles, to software, to data collection, to workflow, to cameras and sensors and an afternoon of UAS demos.  But what struck me most about the symposium was not just the participants’ level of sophistication and knowledge (it was very high), but also the suitability of drones for the mapping and surveying market. In this article, I’ll explain why I think this market will be the second biggest commercial drone market (behind aerial photography and cinema and ahead of precision agriculture) by telling you three things I learned about how GIS professionals see and use drones.

Read more here:  http://droneanalyst.com/2014/10/28/gis-biggest-little-drone-market-world/

This post also appears in sUAS News 'The Market'

This post looks at the top line results of the poll I did on drone delivery service - how much would you pay?

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What do medicine, batteries, and forgotten anniversary gifts have in common?  They are the most likely items consumers will want delivered by drone once that service is available.  At least, that’s the verdict from the consumers I surveyed in August and September of this year. In my post Drone Delivery: How Much Would You Pay?, I ran a poll with three simple questions:

1. What’s the maximum amount you would be willing to pay for a package delivered by drone?
2. Which of ten items would you want delivered in 30 minutes?
3. Under what circumstance would you need something so quickly that you’d pay top dollar for it?

These are the top line results.  Read more here: http://droneanalyst.com/2014/10/02/drone-delivery-numbers/

You can see the companion summary presentation with more complete graphs and charts of the data here: http://www.slideshare.net/ColinSnow/drone-delivery-bythenumbers